Analyzing the First Round of the NFL Draft
We look at last night's best picks and who is still available today
In Today’s Newsletter…
1. Leading Off: Best three players still available in the NFL Draft
2. Scouting Report: Brown looks to give Celtics home court advantage back
3. Game of the Day: Lakers are big road underdogs despite 2-0 series lead
4. Overtime: Breaking down every pick of the first round of the draft
1. Leading Off
There was no drama to begin the 2026 NFL Draft, as the Raiders drafted Heisman Trophy and National Championship-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza as expected, making this the fourth-straight year that a QB was taken first. The Rams made the most surprising move of the night, not necessarily for drafting a quarterback — starter Matthew Stafford is 38 — but because Ty Simpson might have been available 10 or more picks later than the 13th spot in which Los Angeles took the former Alabama signal caller. Rams coach Sean McVay said Simpson would compete with Stetson Bennett IV to back up Stafford in the upcoming season, as “This is Matthew’s team.”
Here’s a look at the first round picks who could have the biggest impact in the upcoming season and the prospects still on the board that should come off quickly tonight.
Three Best Picks:
No. 11 Caleb Downs (Cowboys): Three of his Ohio State teammates were taken before him, but Downs might have been the best pick of the night. The Buckeyes’ safety didn’t allow a touchdown for two seasons and could be the class’s best tackler. The Cowboys gave the Dolphins two fifth-round picks in this year’s draft to swap spots to take Downs, who should get significant playing time as a rookie.
No. 1 Fernando Mendoza (Raiders): Las Vegas needed a franchise quarterback, so this was an easy one for them. Mendoza could be the face of the team for years to come and showed few flaws as he led Indiana to an improbable title. He’s mentally and physically tough and won’t have to start right away after the Raiders signed veteran Kirk Cousins this offseason.
No. 5 Arvell Reese (Giants): Reese was the second of three Buckeyes taken in the span of four picks and had the talent to be taken No. 1 overall in some draft years. The Jets took David Bailey over Reese with the 2nd selection, so they’ll see up close if they made the right call. The Giants didn’t necessarily need Reese, but when he was still available they couldn’t pass up the player that might have the most talent of the class.
Three Best Players Still Available:
Tennessee CB Jermod McCoy: Most draft experts had McCoy as a first-round talent, but he missed this past season with a torn ACL and no team was willing to take the risk on Day 1. Prior to his injury, he was seen as a sure-fire NFL starter and potential shut-down corner. He should go early today.
Washington WR Denzel Boston: It’s not a huge surprise Boston fell out of the first round, he certainly wasn’t a lock, but the 6-3, 212-pound wide receiver led the Huskies in receiving each of the past two years and caught 14 of his 20 touchdown passes in the red zone. He likely dropped because he doesn’t have elite speed and there aren’t many teams desperate enough for a rookie receiver to use a pick early.
Toledo S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren: Despite missing out on a Day 1 selection, McNeil-Warren could see action as a rookie. He started at Toledo for three seasons and turned down transfer opportunities when he had the chance to leave. McNeil-Warren committed just one penalty in 1,861 defensive snaps in his career and had nine forced fumbles.
Rounds 2 and 3 are on ESPN tonight starting at 7pm, with the 4th-7th rounds beginning at noon tomorrow.
— Abe Rakov
P.S. I was at PEAK 2026 in Las Vegas this week, where we heard from sports leaders like Raiders SVP Qiava Martinez, UFC SVP Gene Tinner, Jomboy Media CEO Courtney Hirsh, and Sports Illustrated Tickets CEO David Lane. To read about their thoughts on the future of sports, subscribe to our new publication, Sports and Co., which launches in less than two weeks.
2. Scouting Report
Brown has 76ers number this season, Avdija looks to bounce back, and McDavid had regular-season success against Ducks.
Celtics G Jaylen Brown at 76ers
The Celtics fell apart after the first quarter in Game 2 but it wasn’t because of Brown, who scored 31 of his 36 points after the first frame. Brown has gone over tonight’s points total in three of six matchups against the 76ers this season, and his lowest-scoring performance was still a 24-point effort. Boston gave up home court advantage after the eyebrow-raising 14-point loss to Philadelphia, so there is even more pressure on Brown to carry his team to avoid falling into an unexpected hole.
Points: 26.5 (28.7 - 36, 26, 23, 35, 26), Reb: 5.5 (6.9 - 7, 4, 3, 9, 6), Ast: 4.5 (5.1 - 4, 3, 1, 3, 3)
PHI - W1 (5-5 L10) | Points Allowed: 116.1 (19th), Reb Allowed: 45.3 (22nd), Ast Allowed: 27.6 (22nd)
Trail Blazers F Deni Avdija vs. Spurs
Avdija had his worst offensive performance since the All-Star Break even though his team eked out a three-point win against the Wembanyama-less Spurs in Game 2. Prior to being shut down by San Antonio (5-13 from the field), he scored 25+ in nine straight games. The Spurs’ defense is tough, but with Wembanyama’s status unknown after suffering a concussion, it could be a little more porous than usual. Either way, Avdija finished the year strong, averaging 30.0 points in April — his highest total of any month this season by nearly three.
Points: 22.5 (24.2 - 14, 30, 41, 25, 35), Reb: 6.5 (6.9 - 4, 10, 7, 6, 4), Ast: 5.5 (6.7 - 3, 5, 12, 10, 5)
SAS - L1 (7-3 L10) | Points Allowed: 111.5 (8th), Reb Allowed: 42.6 (8th), Ast Allowed: 26.2 (12th)
Oilers C Connor McDavid at Ducks
McDavid has been held goalless in three straight and four of five games, but had success against the Ducks before the postseason. He notched a goal and two assists in a 4-2 win at the end of March, two assists in a 6-5 loss in February and a goal and an assist in a 7-4 win in January. Edmonton is looking for its third straight trip to the Stanley Cup Finals, so McDavid will want to avoid a 2-1 deficit in the first round.
Anytime Goal: +105 (0.59 - 0, 0, 0, 1, 0), Over 3.5 Shots on Goal: -108 (6.4 - 4, 3, 3, 5, 1), 2+ Points: -130 (1.7 - 0, 0, 4, 1, 0)
ANA - W1 (3-7 L10) | Goals Allowed: 3.51 (29th), Penalty Kill: 76.4% (27th)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - Last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
3. Game of the Day
Even with Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves out of the lineup, the Lakers swept the first two games of the series against the Rockets in Los Angeles. Houston’s own star, Kevin Durant, missed Game 1 but played 41 minutes in Game 2, second on the team behind Amen Thompson’s 42, scoring 23 points on 7-12 shooting in the seven-point loss. LeBron James put in a game-high 28 points for the Lakers in Game 2 after finishing with 19 points, 13 assists and eight rebounds in the series opener. The 41-year-old could get reinforcements soon, as Reaves could return at some point in this round, according to ESPN’s Shams Charania. If the Lakers go up 3-0 tonight, they might not even want to rush him back.
Lakers (2-0) vs. Rockets
8pm on Prime Video
The Odds
Spread: LAL +10.5 (-115), HOU -10.5 (-105)
76% of the money and 81% of the bets are with LAL
ATS | LAL: 47-36-1, HOU: 36-48
Moneyline: LAL +315, HOU -400
Total (205.5): Over -110, Under -110
LAL: 42-42, HOU: 39-45
Prediction Markets Data
To Win Game: HOU 78%, HOU to Win by 8.5: 54%, HOU to Win by 11.5: 42%, Over 206.5 Points Scored: 49%
To Win Series: LAL 54%
Players to Watch
LAL F LeBron James | Points: 24.5 (20.9 - 28, 19, 18, 28, 26), Reb: 6.5 (6.1 - 8, 8, 4, 6, 8), Ast: 8.5 (7.2 - 7, 13, 6, 12, 11)
HOU F Kevin Durant | Points: 23.5 (26.0 - 23, 33, 29, 24, 31), Reb: 5.5 (5.5 - 6, 7, 7, 4, 8), Ast: 4.5 (4.8 - 4, 7, 5, 3, 8)
4. Overtime
In the News
NFL.com analyzed all 32 picks in the first round of the draft, from the Cardinals rightfully reaching to take Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love with the third selection to the Jets snagging Indiana wide receiver Omar Cooper Jr. at 30th after trading to get into one of the last slots of the first day.
Spurs star Victor Wembanyama is still in concussion protocol after leaving his team’s Game 2 loss in the second quarter, but he’s traveling with San Antonio in case he is cleared to play for either of the next two games in Portland. “He looks good,” Spurs coach Mitch Johnson said, but added that there have been no discussions about when Wembanyama can suit up.
Browns quarterback Shedeur Sanders said there’s “a new vibe, a new energy,” under new head coach Todd Monken. Sanders split starting reps with Deshaun Watson, but according to ESPN, Monken said that the number of reps could change each day.
The Mets ended a 12-game losing streak on Wednesday, but CBS Sports thinks two teams should be panicking even more than New York in the early stages of the season.
ESPN has an early update to its Bracketology, giving Florida the top overall seed and calling Iowa the last team in next year’s men’s NCAA Tournament. Defending champion Michigan, Michigan State, and Duke are the other projected No. 1 seeds, with UConn, Gonzaga, Arizona and Illinois the current No. 2s.
What to Watch (times ET)
Friday
3pm: Sunderland vs. Nottingham Forest on USA
7pm: NFL Draft (Rounds 2-3) on ESPN
7pm: Celtics vs. 76ers (1-1) on Prime Video (or Lightning vs. Canadiens (1-1) on TNT)
7:15pm: Phillies vs. Braves on Apple TV
8pm: Lakers (2-0) vs. Rockets on Prime Video
9:30pm: Golden Knights vs. Mammoth (1-1) on TBS
10pm: Oilers vs. Ducks (1-1) on TNT
10:10pm: Cubs vs. Dodgers on Apple TV
10:30pm: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers (1-1) on Prime Video
Saturday
7:30am: Fulham vs. Aston Villa on USA
12pm: NFL Draft (Rounds 4-7) on ESPN
12:30pm: Arsenal vs. Newcastle on USA
1pm: Pistons vs. Magic (1-1) on NBCSN/Peacock
3pm: Hurricanes (3-0) vs. Senators on TBS
3:07pm: Guardians vs. Blue Jays on FS1
3:30pm: Thunder (2-0) vs. Suns on NBC
4:45pm: Minnesota United vs. LAFC on FOX
5:30pm: Stars (2-1) vs. Wild on TBS
6pm: Knicks vs. Hawks (2-1) on NBC
7:15pm: Cubs vs. Dodgers on FOX
8pm: Penguins vs. Flyers (3-0) on TBS
8:30pm: Nuggets vs. Timberwolves (2-1) on ABC
Sunday
10am: Chelsea vs. Leeds (FA Cup) on ESPN2
1pm: Cavaliers vs. Raptors on ESPN
2pm: Sabres vs. Bruins on TNT
3:30pm: Spurs vs. Trail Blazers on ESPN
4:30pm: Avalanche vs. Kings on TNT
6pm: Angel City vs. Thorns (NWSL) on ESPN2
7pm: Celtics vs. 76ers on NBC (or Lightning vs. Canadiens on ESPN)
7:20pm: Angels vs. Royals on Peacock
9:30pm: Lakers vs. Rockets on NBC (or Oilers vs. Ducks on ESPN)