Final Four Underdog UConn Aiming to Cement Dynasty + Adebayo Gets Rematch
Huskies aiming for third title in four years, women's championship odds, and Bam Adebayo faces team he scored 83 against
In Today’s Newsletter…
1. Leading Off: UConn has worst odds to win title but wants a dynasty
2. Scouting Report: Adebayo gets another matchup against Wizards
3. Games of the Weekend: A look at both men’s Final Four matchups
4. By the Numbers: Women’s NCAA title game set
5. Overtime: UNC loses out on top head coaching candidate
1. Leading Off
UConn is looking to cement its dynasty with a third national title in four years, but the Huskies have the longest odds in the Final Four. Coach Dan Hurley’s program is a 1.5-point underdog to Illinois today and +600 to cut down the nets on Monday.
With two wins, UConn would earn its seventh title, breaking a tie with North Carolina for the third-most all-time behind Kentucky’s eight and UCLA’s 11. Senior Alex Karaban could pass his coach’s brother, Bobby Hurley, for second all-time with 19 NCAA Tournament wins if UConn takes the championship (Duke’s Christian Laettner has the record with 21).
Michigan has the best odds to win the title (+140), followed by Arizona (+185) and Illinois (+480).
— Abe Rakov
2. Scouting Report
Adebayo faces team he scored 83 points against last month, Wemby vs. Jokic, and Barcelona’s youngster is due…
Heat C Bam Adebayo
The last time Adebayo played the Wizards, he scored the second-most points in a game in NBA history with 83. He cooled down slightly after that and at the end of March had a four-game stretch of scoring 18 points or fewer, but Miami’s star center has put in 23 and 29 points in his last two outings. Adebayo has collected double-digit rebounds in 7 of 8 games, and Washington is last in the NBA in rebounds allowed. The Heat have given up 135+ points in three of four games and the Wizards are 29th in the NBA in points per game allowed, so there should be a lot of scoring today. Miami still has an outside shot of avoiding a play-in slot, so they should still be motivated.
Points: 24.5 (20.3 - 29, 23, 15, 14, 17), Reb: 11.5 (10.0 - 10, 16, 12, 16, 10), Ast: 3.5 (3.0 - 2, 6, 3, 3, 7)
WAS - L4 (1-9 L10) | Points Allowed: 124.3 (29th), Reb Allowed: 47.9 (30th), Ast Allowed: 29.1 (29th)
Spurs F Victor Wembanyama
After scoring 41 points in back-to-back games, Wembanyama sat out Thursday’s matchup against the Clippers — but all reports indicate he would have played if the team thought they needed him. The French sensation missed his team’s first two contests against Denver this season, but both were high scoring without him (a 139-136 Spurs win in November and a 136-131 Nuggets victory last month). San Antonio has won 11 straight and is just two games back of Oklahoma City for the top seed in the West, and Denver is just one game behind the Lakers for the three-seed, so both teams could use a win in this spot.
Points: 28.5 (24.7 - 41, 41, 23, 19, 26), Reb: 12.5 (11.5 - 18, 16, 15, 15, 15), Ast: 3.5 (3.0 - 3, 4, 6, 3, 4)
DEN - W7 (8-2 L10) | Points Allowed: 116.6 (19th), Reb Allowed: 42.8 (9th), Ast Allowed: 27.5 (20th)
Barcelona F Lamine Yamal
The 18-year-old superstar hasn’t scored in his last two appearances. He hasn’t missed the back of the net in three straight games since October, so he’s due. Prior to this mini-drought, Yamal had seven goals across seven matches. His 14 La Liga goals matches his total from his first two seasons combined, and he’s added 5 goals and 4 assists in eight Champions League matchups, and 2 goals and 2 assists in five Copa del Rey appearances. Yamal was kept of the scoresheet when these teams faced off in December, but had three shots.
Anytime Goal: +130 (0.53 - 0, 0, 1, 3, 0), Anytime Assist: +185 (0.4 - 0, 0, 0, 0, 1), 4+ Shots: +100 (3.8 - 2, 0, 1, 6, 3)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - Last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
3. Games of the Weekend
A trip to the national championship game is on the line tonight, as third-seeded Illinois faces second-seeded UConn in the first game and No. 1s Michigan and Arizona play in the nightcap. UConn is coming off a miraculous, come-from-behind, last-second upset victory over Duke, Arizona outscored Purdue by 22 in the second half to erase a seven-point deficit en route to a 15-point win, Illinois pulled away late against Iowa, and Michigan dominated Tennessee with a 33-point drubbing.
Both matchups feature 1.5-point spreads, with bettors backing UConn and Michigan.
No. 3 Illinois (28-8) vs. No. 2 UConn (33-5)
6:09pm on TBS/truTV/HBO Max
The Odds
Spread: ILL -1.5 (-120), UCONN +1.5 (-102)
61% of the money and 60% of the bets are with UCONN
ATS | ILL: 21-15 UCONN: 15-23
Moneyline: ILL -134, UCONN +112
Total (139.5): Over -112, Under -108
ILL: 15-21, UCONN: 18-20
Prediction Markets Data
To Win: ILL 55%; Over 139.5 Points: 51%
Players to Watch
ILL G Keaton Wagler | Points: 17.5 (17.9 - 25, 13, 14, 18, 19), Reb: 4.5 (5.0 - 2, 12, 5, 7, 1), Ast: (4.3 - 3, 3, 2, 7, 8)
UCONN C Tarris Reed Jr. | Points: 14.5 (14.7 - 26, 20, 10, 31, 17), Reb: 9.5 (8.8 - 9, 5, 13, 27, 7), Ast: (2.4 - 3, 4, 2, 3, 0)
No. 1 Michigan (35-3) vs. No. 1 Arizona (36-2)
8:49pm on TBS/truTV/HBO Max
The Odds
Spread: MICH -1.5 (-110), ARI +1.5 (-110)
54% of the money and 52% of the bets are with MICH
ATS | MICH: 18-20, ARI: 24-14
Moneyline: MICH -125, ARI +104
Total (157.5): Over -110, Under -110
MICH: 16-22, ARI: 19-19
Prediction Markets Data
To Win: MICH 53%; Over 157.5 Points: 51%
Players to Watch
MICH F Yaxel Lendeborg | Points: 17.5 (15.2 - 27, 23, 25, 9, 20), Reb: 6.5 (7.0 - 7, 12, 6, 4, 5), Ast: (3.3 - 4, 7, 2, 4, 1)
ARI G Brayden Burries | Points: 17.5 (16.1 - 14, 23, 16, 18, 21), Reb: 4.5 (4.9 - 6, 5, 9, 5, 2), Ast: (2.5 - 2, 2, 2, 2, 3)
*Player stats are shown as: Today’s total (Season average - Last 5 games from most recent to oldest)
4. By the Numbers
Women’s championship game is set, playoff seeding on the line in weekend NBA action, and NHL matchups to watch…
NCAAW
NCAA Championship: No. 1 South Carolina (36-3) vs. No. 1 UCLA (36-1)
Spread | USC -2.5 (-120), UCLA +2.5 (-102)
Moneyline | USC -160, UCLA +130
NBA
Wizards (17-59, 6-32 Away) vs. Heat (40-37, 24-15 Home)
Spread | WAS +17.5 (-112), MIA -17.5 (-108): 85% of the money is with MIA
Moneyline | WAS +1100, MIA -2200
Prediction Markets Data | To Win: MIA 92%; Over 247.5 Points: 54%
Spurs (59-18, 29-11 Away) vs. Nuggets (49-28, 24-13 Home)
Spread | SAS -2 (-110), DEN +2 (-110): 76% of the money is with SAS
Moneyline | SAS -132, DEN +112
Prediction Markets Data | To Win: SAS 56%; Over 243.5 Points: 50%
Pistons (56-21, 25-12 Away) vs. 76ers (42-34, 21-17 Home)
Spread | DET -1.5 (-106), PHI +1.5 (-114): 69% of the money is with DET
Moneyline | DET -118, PHI +100
Prediction Markets Data | To Win: DET 54%; Over 227.5 Points: 51%
NHL
Red Wings (40-27-8, 20-13-5 Away) vs. Rangers (31-36-9, 12-19-7 Home)
Spread | DET -1.5 (+172), NYR +1.5 (-220)
Moneyline | DET -144, NYR +120: 87% of the money is with DET
Prediction Markets Data | To Win: DET 57%; Under 6.5 Goals: 54%
Wild (42-21-12, 21-11-4 Away) vs. Senators (39-26-10, 19-11-6 Home)
Spread | MIN +1.5 (-250), OTT -1.5 (+198)
Moneyline | MIN +104, OTT -125: 60% of the money is with MIN
Prediction Markets Data | To Win: OTT 52%; Over 5.5 Goals: 56%
Avalanche (49-15-10, 25-7-5 Away) vs. Stars (45-19-12, 23-10-4 Home)
Spread | COL +1.5 (-250), DAL -1.5 (+210)
Moneyline | COL -110, DAL -110: 51% of the money is with DAL
Prediction Markets Data | To Win: COL 52%; Over 6.5 Goals: 54%
Bruins (43-25-8, 15-15-7 Away) vs. Lightning (47-22-6, 24-13-1 Home)
Spread | BOS +1.5 (-168), TB -1.5 (+134): 64% of the money is with BOS
Moneyline | BOS +150, TB -182
Prediction Markets Data | To Win: TB 61%; Over 6.5 Goals: 54%
MLB
Dodgers (5-2, 1-0 Away) vs. Nationals (3-4, 0-1 Home)
Spread | LAD -1.5 (-184), WAS +1.5 (+152): 76% of the money is with LAD
Moneyline | LAD -295, WAS +240
Prediction Markets Data | To Win: LAD 70%; Over 9.5 Runs: 50%
Marlins (5-2, 0-1 Away) vs. Yankees (6-1, 1-0 Home)
Spread | MIA +1.5 (-138), NYY -1.5 (+115): 97% of the money is with NYY
Moneyline | MIA -104, NYY -112
Prediction Markets Data | To Win: NYY 65%; Over 7.5 Runs: 52%
5. Overtime
In the News
President Trump issued a new executive order yesterday that limits a student-athlete to one transfer as an undergraduate, places a five-year cap on eligibility, effectively ends NIL collectives, and mandates scholarship benchmarks for women’s and Olympic sports. As he has done with previous executive orders, Trump will tie federal funding to compliance with the new rules. Some of the new mandates have previously been struck down by courts.
Arizona coach Tommy Lloyd ended speculation that a Final Four run would lead him to Chapel Hill, as the fifth-year coach signed a new five-year contract with the Wildcats. Lloyd is 148-35 in Tucson and now will be one of the five highest-paid coaches in college basketball with a fully-guaranteed contract that averages $7.5 million per year over the term of the deal. Michigan’s Dusty May, who faces Arizona tonight, and Bulls coach Billy Donovan are expected to be UNC’s next targets.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins signed a one-year, $20 million contract with the Raiders, solidifying his spot as the third-highest-earning player in NFL history. After passing Tom Brady, now Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers are the only players that have earned more than Cousins’ $339.4 million. Vegas is widely expect to take Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first pick in this month’s NFL Draft.
The Clippers clinched a spot in the NBA Play-In Tournament after an inconsistent year that has been messy from start to finish. But their hardcore fans are still all-in on the team, especially those that sit in The Wall — a unique 4,500-seat area of the Intuit Dome that looks and sounds like a college student section.
For the first time since 1994, neither Tiger Woods nor Phil Mickelson will compete at the Masters. Mickelson announced this week that he withdrew because his “family continues to navigate a personal health matter,” while Woods said he was taking an indefinite leave from golf after his arrest on suspicion of driving under the influence at the end of last month. Scottie Scheffler is the significant favorite to win at +550.
What to Watch (times ET)
Saturday
12:30pm: Red Wings vs. Rangers on ABC
3pm: Spurs vs. Nuggets on Prime Video (or Avalanche vs. Stars on ABC)
4:10pm: Brewers vs. Royals on FS1
6:09pm: Illinois vs. UConn (Final Four) on TBS
7:15pm: Cubs vs. Guardians or Braves vs. Diamondbacks on FOX
8:49pm: Michigan vs. Arizona (Final Four) on TBS
Sunday
11:30am: West Ham vs. Leeds (FA Cup) on ESPN2
1pm: Wild vs. Red Wings on TNT
3:30pm: South Carolina vs. UCLA (Women’s NCAA Basketball National Championship) on ABC
5pm: Bay FC vs. Washington Spirit on ESPN2
7pm: Capitals vs. Rangers on ESPN
7:20pm: Cardinals vs. Tigers on Peacock
7:30pm: Lakers vs. Mavericks on NBC
9:30pm: Blues vs. Avalanche on ESPN
10pm: Rockets vs. Warriors on NBC