Matchups to Watch in Every Sweet 16 Game
We look at the players who could decide which teams advance to the Elite 8
Texas is the Cinderella of March Madness this year, which is a fitting symbol of how much college basketball has changed in the NIL and transfer portal era. According to CNBC’s rankings, the Longhorns are the most valuable program in all of college athletics at $1.48 billion. Yet here they are, an 11-seed and the only double-digit team to survive the first weekend.
There will be no repeat national champion or back-to-back years with every No. 1 seed in the Final Four because of No. 9 Iowa, the second-lowest seed still standing. The Hawkeyes knocked out Florida to give Iowa its first second-weekend appearance since Tom Davis’s final season in 1999. No. 5 St. John’s is also back in the Sweet 16 for the first time since that same year. Rick Pitino’s Red Storm now face a Duke squad sitting third in the title odds at +420, trailing fellow No. 1s Michigan (+310) and Arizona (+370).
With the three remaining top seeds still in control but nothing settled, here are the matchups to watch in every Sweet 16 game.
Thursday Games
No. 11 Texas vs. No. 2 Purdue
Matas Vokietaitis (Texas) vs. Trey Kaufman-Renn (Purdue): Vokietaitis is averaging 18.3 points and 11.0 rebounds across three NCAA Tournament games, but the matchup to watch is Kaufman-Renn against Texas’s drop coverage, which leaves him open to his float game off Braden Smith ball screens. That’s a problem, because Smith, who now holds the all-time NCAA career assists record with 1,083, has been finding Kaufman-Renn in those spots all season.
Purdue (-7.5, -105), Texas (+7.5, -115): 58% of the money is with the Boilermakers but 53% of the bets are with the Longhorns
No. 9 Iowa vs. No. 4 Nebraska
Bennett Stirtz (Iowa) vs. Pryce Sandfort (Nebraska): Sandfort is averaging 19.0 points per game in the NCAA Tournament on 55% shooting, including 10-of-18 from three. Stirtz finished with 25 points when Iowa beat Nebraska on Feb. 17, but in the regular-season finale loss to Nebraska he scored just 11 points on 10 shots. The outcome of this rubber match hinges almost entirely on whether Stirtz can get loose or whether Sandfort and Nebraska’s defense force him into another cold performance.
Iowa (+1.5, -110), Nebraska (-1.5, -110): 66% of the money and 60% of the bets are with the Cornhuskers
No. 4 Arkansas vs. No. 1 Arizona
Darius Acuff Jr. (Arkansas) vs. Jaden Bradley (Arizona): Acuff is the only player in NCAA Tournament history with 60-plus points, 10-plus assists, and five or fewer turnovers over any two-game span. Big 12 Player of the Year Jaden Bradley, along with Brayden Burries, will be tasked with containing him, with the primary concern being foul trouble: Acuff’s ability to draw contact and get to the line is what makes him so difficult to guard.
Arkansas (+7.5, +100), Arizona (-7.5, -122): 72% of the money and 68% of the bets are with the Razorbacks
No. 3 Illinois vs. No. 2 Houston
Keaton Wagler (Illinois) vs. Kingston Flemings (Houston): Wagler, a freshman, has totaled 32 points and nine assists across two tournament games while shooting 50% from three, while Flemings, also a freshman and a projected lottery pick, averages 16.5 points, 5.4 assists, and 1.5 steals per game while shooting 38% from deep. This matchup of two elite guards who serve as the offensive engines for the two best teams left in the South Region is worth watching closely.
Illinois (+2.5, -102), Houston (-2.5, -120): 65% of the money and 67% of the bets are with the Cougars
Friday Games
No. 5 St. John’s vs. No. 1 Duke
Zuby Ejiofor (St. John’s) vs. Cameron Boozer (Duke): Boozer is averaging 22.5 points and 10.2 rebounds per game this season, and much of the defensive responsibility for slowing him down will fall on Ejiofor. St. John’s doesn’t have the length and athleticism that has given Boozer trouble at times, meaning if Ejiofor can’t contain him, Duke’s path to the Elite Eight becomes very straightforward.
St. John’s (+6.5, -106), Duke (-6.5, -114): 66% of the money and 67% of the bets are with the Red Storm
No. 4 Alabama vs. No. 1 Michigan
Labaron Philon Jr. (Alabama) vs. Roddy Gayle Jr. (Michigan): Philon scored 29 points in the first round and dished out a career-high 12 assists in the second round, and he’s capable of single-handedly carrying the Crimson Tide. The key to a comfortable Michigan win will be whether Roddy Gayle Jr. and Nimari Burnett can slow him down.
Alabama (+9.5, -110), Michigan (-9.5, -110): 64% of the money and 69% of the bets are with the Crimson Tide
No. 3 Michigan State vs. No. 2 UConn
Jeremy Fears Jr. (Michigan State) vs. Tarris Reed Jr. (UConn): Fears leads the nation in assists at 9.2 per game and combined for 27 assists with only nine turnovers in his two tournament wins, but Michigan State’s primary challenge is limiting Tarris Reed Jr. UConn is a different team entirely when Reed is dominant in the post, grabbing offensive rebounds and generating second-chance opportunities. Whichever player takes over for his team decides the game.
Michigan State (+1.5, -110), UConn (-1.5, -110): 55% of the money and 51% of the bets are with the Huskies
No. 6 Tennessee vs. No. 2 Iowa State
Tamin Lipsey (Iowa State) vs. Ja’Kobi Gillespie (Tennessee): Lipsey led the Big 12 with 76 steals this season and is Iowa State’s career leader. He totaled 26 points, 10 assists, and five steals as Kentucky committed 20 turnovers in Iowa State’s second-round win, making whether Gillespie can disrupt his orchestration the key matchup in a game that could go either way — particularly if Iowa State All-American Joshua Jefferson remains out. (Note: Jefferson, who averages 16.4 points and 7.4 rebounds per game, suffered an ankle sprain in the first round, missed the Kentucky game while on a scooter and in a walking boot, and had an MRI on Monday. His Sweet 16 availability is uncertain.)
Tennessee (+3.5, -102), Iowa State (-3.5, -120): 64% of the money and 60% of the bets are with the Cyclones